"Kaito, are you looking at that fortune app again?"
Sora called out. In the library after school, Kaito was absorbed in his smartphone.
"Yeah. Today's fortune is really accurate."
"What does it say?"
"'Today, misunderstandings may arise in conversations with friends. Choose your words carefully.' And I actually almost got into an argument with Riku this morning."
Leo joined the conversation. "That might be confirmation bias."
"Confirmation bias?" Kaito looked up.
"A cognitive distortion where you only pay attention to information that supports your beliefs and ignore evidence that contradicts them," Leo explained.
Sora added, "So you mean Kaito wants to believe in the fortune, so he only remembers the parts that came true?"
"But it really did come true."
"Then let me ask," Leo continued. "What were the other predictions in the fortune? Do you remember all of them?"
Kaito looked at the screen again. "Um... 'Your concentration will improve in the afternoon' and 'Wearing something blue brings good luck'..."
"Did your concentration improve?" Sora asked.
"No, I was sleepy."
"What about blue items?"
"I'm not wearing any."
Leo nodded. "So out of ten predictions, only one or two came true. But Kaito felt it was 'really accurate.'"
"I see... I forgot about the parts that didn't come true."
"The human brain prioritizes processing information that reinforces what we want to believe," Leo continued. "This is said to have evolved as a survival strategy."
Sora wrote in her notebook. "Because once we form a belief, it's cognitively easier to maintain it?"
"Exactly. Changing beliefs requires reconstructing existing cognitive structures. That consumes energy."
Kaito thought deeply. "So I'm only collecting convenient evidence because I want to believe in fortune telling?"
"Unconsciously, yes," Leo said gently. "Everyone does this. Even I, when I believe a German soccer team will win, I only look for excuses when they lose."
Sora laughed. "Even you, Leo?"
"You can't completely escape confirmation bias. But being aware of it can reduce its influence."
Kaito became serious. "How?"
"Actively seek opposing views," Leo answered. "Intentionally gather evidence that contradicts your beliefs. Play the 'devil's advocate.'"
"Like in debate, thinking from the opposite position?" Sora confirmed.
"Yes. Also, borrow others' perspectives. Listen to opinions from people like you and me who don't share Kaito's beliefs."
Kaito closed the fortune app. "I see. I don't need to completely deny fortunes, but blind faith is dangerous too."
"It's about balance," Sora said. "Enjoying it is fine, but don't let it distort your judgment."
Leo added, "In psychology, this is called 'critical thinking.' The ability to objectively evaluate your own thought processes."
"Critical thinking," Kaito repeated. "I guess I am the type to believe easily."
Sora smiled. "Just being self-aware is progress."
"Confirmation bias also occurs in politics, science, and relationships," Leo continued. "When you only talk to people with the same opinions, your worldview becomes biased. This is called the echo chamber effect."
"Echo chamber..." Kaito murmured. "The same sound keeps echoing."
"Exactly. That's why exposure to diverse opinions is important."
Kaito opened his notebook. "Can I take notes on how to reduce confirmation bias?"
"Of course," Leo smiled. "Seek counterevidence. Listen to others' perspectives. Question your own judgments. Make these habits."
Sora added, "Also, you need to be especially careful when you're emotional. Strong emotions reinforce bias."
"I see. I'll practice what I learned today right away."
Leo stood up. "Good attitude. You can't eliminate mental biases, but you can control them."
The three left the library. The evening sky was dyed red.
"Sora, the sunset is beautiful today," Kaito said.
"Yeah. They say red sunsets mean clear weather tomorrow."
"Let's check that with confirmation bias too," Leo laughed.
The three laughed together. Knowing your mental biases is knowing yourself.